ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPRESSION AS AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0330 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. AS ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR AFFECTS THE CYCLONE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT REGENERATE AGAIN...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. FABIO IS CONTINUING ON A WESTERLY TRACK AT 275/15...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...ON A WESTERLY TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE INTACT THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 15.2N 135.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.4N 138.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 141.6W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.5N 144.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC