ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 THE CENTER OF FABIO IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR AND EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN A COUPLE DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE LAST SIX HOURS OF MOTION HAVE FABIO RIGHT ON TRACK... 275 DEGREES... AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF 15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY SEEMINGLY DUE TO A RATHER STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ALSO IS FASTER AND CLOSE TO CONU...TAKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC