ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006 CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...AND A CIRCULAR SHAPED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AS DEPICTED BY RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 OR 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT AS WELL. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM...AND THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER WHICH...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDL GUIDANCE CLOSELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.7N 129.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 14.9N 131.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.2N 134.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 137.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.7N 140.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 145.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 155.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC