ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3...ULTIMATELY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/13...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS 6 HOUR MOTION. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 15.0N 127.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC