ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 FABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT INDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST... SHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC