ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 66 6(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA SOCORRO 64 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 2 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 192N 1112W 34 92 5(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 12 192N 1112W 50 49 16(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 12 192N 1112W 64 8 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 24 201N 1127W 34 18 62(80) 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 24 201N 1127W 50 2 42(44) 10(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 24 201N 1127W 64 X 15(15) 5(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 36 213N 1145W 34 2 21(23) 40(63) 8(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 36 213N 1145W 50 X 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 36 213N 1145W 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 48 224N 1164W 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 23(44) 5(49) 1(50) X(50) 48 224N 1164W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) 48 224N 1164W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 240N 1190W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20) 72 240N 1190W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 240N 1190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1220W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 250N 1220W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 1220W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60 70 65 55 35 25 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC