Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm EMILIA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 66   6(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  2  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 192N 1112W 34 92   5(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 192N 1112W 50 49  16(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 12 192N 1112W 64  8   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 24 201N 1127W 34 18  62(80)   8(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 24 201N 1127W 50  2  42(44)  10(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 24 201N 1127W 64  X  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
 36 213N 1145W 34  2  21(23)  40(63)   8(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 36 213N 1145W 50  X   4( 4)  22(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 36 213N 1145W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 48 224N 1164W 34  X   4( 4)  17(21)  23(44)   5(49)   1(50)   X(50)
 48 224N 1164W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 48 224N 1164W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 240N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 72 240N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 240N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 250N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 96 250N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 250N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     70      65      55      35      25       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN