ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 18(19) 25(44) 7(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 2(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 186N 1077W 34 76 9(85) 1(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) 12 186N 1077W 50 18 13(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 12 186N 1077W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 193N 1092W 34 10 56(66) 12(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 24 193N 1092W 50 1 22(23) 12(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 24 193N 1092W 64 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 36 200N 1107W 34 1 24(25) 37(62) 10(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) 36 200N 1107W 50 X 3( 3) 22(25) 10(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) 36 200N 1107W 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 48 207N 1122W 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) 22(55) 11(66) X(66) X(66) 48 207N 1122W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) 48 207N 1122W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 72 220N 1150W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 24(38) 6(44) X(44) 72 220N 1150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) 72 220N 1150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 235N 1175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) 96 235N 1175W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 96 235N 1175W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 1205W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 120 255N 1205W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 1205W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 60 70 75 65 45 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC