Tropical Storm EMILIA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006               
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   3( 3)   9(12)   8(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   4(20)   1(21)   X(21)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  18(19)  25(44)   7(51)   4(55)   X(55)   X(55)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   2( 2)  10(12)   6(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 186N 1077W 34 76   9(85)   1(86)   X(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 186N 1077W 50 18  13(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 186N 1077W 64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 193N 1092W 34 10  56(66)  12(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 24 193N 1092W 50  1  22(23)  12(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 24 193N 1092W 64  X   6( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 36 200N 1107W 34  1  24(25)  37(62)  10(72)   3(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 36 200N 1107W 50  X   3( 3)  22(25)  10(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 36 200N 1107W 64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
 48 207N 1122W 34  X   5( 5)  28(33)  22(55)  11(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 48 207N 1122W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)   7(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 48 207N 1122W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 220N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  24(38)   6(44)   X(44)
 72 220N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)
 72 220N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 96 235N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   7(19)   1(20)
 96 235N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 96 235N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
120 255N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 255N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     60      70      75      65      45      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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