ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 25(42) 5(47) 1(48) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 1(16) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 2(20) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 146N 1049W 34 70 7(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 12 146N 1049W 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 146N 1049W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 158N 1064W 34 5 47(52) 10(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 24 158N 1064W 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 24 158N 1064W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 168N 1080W 34 1 11(12) 34(46) 9(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) 36 168N 1080W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 36 168N 1080W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 177N 1094W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 11(51) 1(52) X(52) 48 177N 1094W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) 1(17) 48 177N 1094W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 195N 1120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 23(31) 9(40) 2(42) 72 195N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 72 195N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 210N 1145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27) 96 210N 1145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 96 210N 1145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 230N 1170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 120 230N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 230N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 60 60 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC