ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006 EMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I OVERPASS. SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 36 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC