ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS. A 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST THAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC