Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WELL DEFINED BANDING
FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
36 GHZ DATA FROM THE AMSR-E INSTRUMENT AT 0939 UTC.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT...WHICH IS
A BLEND OF THE CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.  
DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24C...EMILIA IS HOLDING ITS
OWN QUITE WELL.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
OR EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD FINALLY
WEAKEN EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11.  THE STEERING MECHANISM OF EMILIA HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFY...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SHOWN A LEFT BIAS.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
EMILIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
NORTHWEST MOTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WITH A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT
EMILIA WILL JUST PARALLEL THE BAJA COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.
 
A 1200 UTC SHIP...MQYA3...REPORTED AT NORTHWEST WIND AT 30 KT AROUND
50 N MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WIND RADII
WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

LAND STATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD.   
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 24.7N 113.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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