ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 EARLIER THIS EVENING...VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT EMILIA WAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVER THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A MORE IMPRESSIVE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH COLDER TOPS OF -70C AND AND A STRONG BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WITH A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 61 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FOREGOING AND THE RECENT BANDING DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THROUGH A NOT SO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7...JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH A SHORT-TERM MOTION MORE LIKE DUE WEST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/GFDN... SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OTHER GROUPING...CONSISTING OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND...ODDLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE... INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.2N 108.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC