ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF T3.6/57 KT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN. IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC