ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006 EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION... ALL THE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT FROM THE TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED NOW WITH CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS MADE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PREMATURE SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT INDICATE THAT SHARP OF AN INITIAL TURN ARE THE INTERPOLATED UKMET...STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL P91E...AND CLIPER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTERPOLATED UKMET MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT P91E AND CLIPER ARE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND BRING EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH WARM SSTS EXCEEDING 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD PREVIOUSLY NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...EMILIA COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BE A HURRICANE IN 24-30 HOURS AS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND THE INTENSITY FORECASTS ... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 16.5N 104.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC