Hurricane DANIEL
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HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 137N 1277W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 137N 1277W 50 90 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
12 137N 1277W 64 65 12(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
24 142N 1295W 34 32 56(88) 5(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 142N 1295W 50 5 59(64) 8(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
24 142N 1295W 64 1 36(37) 9(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
36 146N 1313W 34 2 33(35) 35(70) 9(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81)
36 146N 1313W 50 X 10(10) 31(41) 8(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51)
36 146N 1313W 64 X 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
48 151N 1331W 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 22(54) 8(62) 1(63) X(63)
48 151N 1331W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30)
48 151N 1331W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
72 160N 1360W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 19(31) 4(35) 1(36)
72 160N 1360W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
72 160N 1360W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 175N 1380W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17)
96 175N 1380W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
96 175N 1380W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 190N 1395W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
120 190N 1395W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 190N 1395W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110 100 85 75 60 45 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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