ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DANIEL HAS DECAYED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE FILLING IN AND THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...5.0/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. DANIEL REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. OTHER POTENTIAL PLAYERS IN THE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE FORMER TWO. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INITIALIZE THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL AS A VERY STRONG FEATURE...AND COUPLED WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BRING DANIEL TO A DEAD STOP WITHIN 24 HOURS RIGHT AROUND 140W. THEY THEN TAKE DANIEL WESTWARD AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL. THIS RESULTS A MORE OR LESS CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE FASTER TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. TO MY EYE...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS INITIALIZATION. FURTHERMORE...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE COMPETITION BY A WIDE MARGIN FOR DANIEL SO FAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 25C...BUT THEY WON'T BE GETTING MUCH COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HOWEVER...DANIEL WILL BE INCREASINGLY INGESTING STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SO A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH DANIEL...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS 200 MB FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DANIEL APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS. IF DANIEL FOLLOWS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WOULD ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE WITH THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TOMORROW MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.8N 138.7W 95 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC