ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006 DANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...HOWEVER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 102 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOST MODELS...RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WEAKENS DANIEL FAR TOO RAPIDLY AND THEN STALLS THE REMNANTS NEAR 140W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THE GFDL HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE RIDGING AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IS MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5....THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CALCULATE SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.3N 137.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC