Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006
 
DANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE CURRENT
SUBJECTIVE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 132 KT. THEREFORE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 130 KT. 
 
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE HURRICANE...DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/11. THE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WESTWARD AND
FASTER. THE GFDL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE MORE
WESTWARD MOTION...CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT TURNS THE
HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER AS A TROUGH DIGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
DANIEL. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL 120-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION DID SHIFT WESTWARD ABOUT 300 N MI FROM THE
EARLIER GUIDANCE. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET SLOW THE FORWARD
SPEED TO ABOUT 6 KT AS DANIEL MOVES INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE...BUT STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FASTER
AND SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY AFTER
48 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADDITIONAL WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.
 
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER. AS SUCH...THE
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECAST...WHICH USES THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK THAT WAS OVER COOLER WATER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 13.9N 130.8W   130 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.2N 132.5W   120 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.6N 134.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 136.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.6N 138.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 140.2W    75 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
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