Hurricane DANIEL
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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS
SURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS. EYE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM
ACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING. IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY
MOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW
T-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A RECENT AMSU
PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C
SSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE
JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE
RIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W. THE
GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME
TIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE
UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W 30 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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