ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006 DESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING... TENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE HURRICANE. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND WARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING. DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING TROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W 125 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W 120 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W 110 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W 95 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W 80 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC