Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006
 
SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT
DANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
BY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD
BECOME PREDOMINANT.  REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE
MAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
115 KT.  DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 115 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12
HOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH
SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.  THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
THE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9.  IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF
DANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   105 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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