ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 THE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL WITH OUTER BANDING FEATURES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 115 KT...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR AVERAGE RAW ADT FROM UW/CIMSS IS T6.6...OR 130 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH NO WELL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALLS APPARENT...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 24-36 HOURS DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL DECAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 96 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK SLOWS AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 13.1N 124.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W 125 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W 85 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC