ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS... DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET... NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC