ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006 THE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DANIEL HAS NOT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EYEWALL CYCLE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KT IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 101 KT AT 2100 UTC AND ADT ESTIMATES OF T5.7...104 KT...DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS. 64 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER EYEWALL FORMATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 28C ALSO SUGGEST THAN THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME AN ANNULAR-TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING HURRICANE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS UNTIL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SSTS QUICKLY DECREASE. IT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY HALTED ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH MORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION...275/7. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO BASICALLY 3 CAMPS. THIS SPLIT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N124W. THE GFDL TAKES THIS LOW WESTWARD AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ENOUGH TO ALLOW RECURVATURE EAST OF 130W. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES MOVE THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST BUT STILL ALLOW MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS WHICH MOVE THE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY AND KEEPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RELATIVELY FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. WE ARE GOING TO RELY ON THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAN THE GFDL AND STAY BETWEEN THE GFS CLUSTER AND THE EUROPEAN CLUSTER...TO THE WEST OF CONU AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.0N 121.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W 110 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC