ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006 AN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT DANIEL WAS DEVELOPING A BANDING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A WARM SPOT...INDICATING POSSIBLE PIN HOLE EYE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CORE CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE ODT IS 85 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE GFDL AND A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIEL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S TRACK CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BIT SLOWER. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIEL TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 11.8N 119.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 11.8N 120.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 12.1N 121.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 123.6W 100 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.9N 125.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 13.6N 129.3W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC