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Hurricane DANIEL (Text)

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
 
THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND
BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL
EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
OF 72 KT.
 
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY
STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP
DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
 
DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A
TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W    90 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W   100 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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