ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. 1200 UTC SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 63 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHERE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS APPARENT. ADDITIONALLY...DANIEL WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. SINCE FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY DIFFICULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY MARCH TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS. WHILE THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THE TRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 100 KT. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE. DANIEL CONTINUES ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OR 270/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER... THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.2N 116.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC