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Tropical Storm DANIEL (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006
 
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DISPLAY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES
AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.  TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.  

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 270/10.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND
POSSIBLY BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 
AFTER 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALONG 125W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE
LATER PERIODS.  

BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  THE FSU
SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG
THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 12.3N 114.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
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