Hurricane CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 192N 1179W 34 87   6(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 12 192N 1179W 50 46  11(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 192N 1179W 64 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 193N 1197W 34  9  49(58)   6(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 24 193N 1197W 50  1  17(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 24 193N 1197W 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 195N 1215W 34  2  12(14)  17(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 36 195N 1215W 50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 195N 1215W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 195N 1230W 34  1   3( 4)   8(12)   5(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 48 195N 1230W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 48 195N 1230W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 195N 1255W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 195N 1255W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 195N 1255W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 195N 1280W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 195N 1280W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 195N 1280W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     50      40      30      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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