ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...CARLOTTA HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THE REMAINING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE UW CIMMS AODT ESTIMATE OF 28 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT 285/10. WITH THE CYCLONE QUICKLY BECOMING VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT SHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.2N 121.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC