Tropical Depression CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006
 
EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...CARLOTTA HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12-18
HOURS.  THE REMAINING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE UW CIMMS
AODT ESTIMATE OF 28 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
285/10.  WITH THE CYCLONE QUICKLY BECOMING VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT
SHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 20.2N 121.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
 
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