ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006 CARLOTTA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY... C.I. ... NUMBERS ARE INVARIABLY TOO HIGH IN THESE CASES. USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T- AND C.I. NUMBERS USUALLY GIVES A MORE REASONABLE RESULT. TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE VALUES FROM THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION GIVES 40 KT...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. IN ANY EVENT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.9N 120.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.2N 122.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 125.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC