ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 AFTER ITS UNEXPECTED COMEBACK YESTERDAY EVENING...CARLOTTA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C NEAR ITS CENTER. HOWEVER...AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES....NOR WAS AN EYE EVIDENT ON A 0316 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0316 UTC. NONETHELESS... DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH WIND SPEED ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE BUT IT IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER CARLOTTA'S WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DAILY NCEP SST ANALYSES SHOW A PATCH OF UNUSUALLY COOL WATERS...NEAR 21 DEG C...IN THE VICINITY OF 19N 125W. THIS COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CARLOTTA MIGHT DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/9. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PREDICT A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL IS PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE FORMATION OF A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF CARLOTTA IN THESE MODELS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEREAS THIS VORTEX INTERACTION MAY INDEED OCCUR...WE WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...OR OF COURSE A SIGNIFICANT LEFT TURN...BEFORE SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK... WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.3N 119.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 123.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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