ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...CARLOTTA HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR THE CENTER...AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...CARLOTTA IS UPGRADED TO A 70-KT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS POOR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE STORM IS ALSO APPROACHING THE NORMAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO STAY PRESENT NORTH OF CARLOTTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THE WESTWARD MOTION AS CARLOTTA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL CALLS FOR A SOUTHWARD MOTION...THE UKMET A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... AND THE BAMS A FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD MOTION OF 6-8 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. CARLOTTA SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES FROM NCEP IN WASHINGTON DC SHOW A COLD WATER EDDY AHEAD OF CARLOTTA...AND IF THE STORM PASSES OVER THIS FEATURES IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.9N 115.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC