ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT 60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC