ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF TOPS COLDER THAN -70C REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A VERY POORLY-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WHILE CARLOTTA RETAINS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 117W ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HURRICANE... UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. THIS MAY BE CREATING SOME SHEAR THAT HAS STOPPED INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N132W. HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA...WHILE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 22N117W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA TO A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND KEEP IT GOING GENERALLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ALL DEVELOP ONE OR MORE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH THE RESULT THAT THE GFS LOSES THE STORM WITHIN 72 HR. WHILE THESE NEW STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL NOT FORM IN TIME TO AFFECT CARLOTTA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. CARLOTTA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR. SINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN...BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE COOLER WATER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.1N 112.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.8N 119.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC