ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 CARLOTTA IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED BANDS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS...INDICATES 13-15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT AND THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN ABOUT 3 DAYS WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE STEERING SCENARIO IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. CARLOTTA IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WEST- NORTHWESTERLY HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.5N 105.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC