Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR
THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGESTING THE BURST IS TURNING INTO A BANDING FEATURE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT
UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA AND INCREASING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE PLACE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER PROVIDING WEAK INITIAL AND
FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES SUGGEST THERE
IS ABOUT A 40-55% CHANCE OF THE INTENSITY INCREASING BY AT LEAST 25
KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR... WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
AND IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
INDICATE CARLOTTA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BEYOND THEN IS LIKELY UNTIL SSTS DECREASE
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THIS DIMINISHING EFFECT IS REFLECTED IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE BUD TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0119 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A
0357 UTC TRMM WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE... WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS... 285/10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TWO TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE EPAC WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING BUD AT THE EXPENSE
OF CARLOTTA AND VICE-VERSA. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE
SAME HOWEVER AS A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MEXICO IS
LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INDUCING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES. A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WEAKENS IN THE
EPAC...THOUGH MODELS NOW TEND TO KEEP THE HIGH A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BEING A LITTLE NORTH OF CONU.   
 
A DISTANT BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W    70 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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