ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AT 12/00Z SHIPS A8AL6 AND SIWB REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND 24 KT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHIP SIWB ALSO REPORTED 11 FT SEA HEIGHTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. THERE MAY BE SOME JUMPING AROUND OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT REFORMS NEAR ANY NEW CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS TAKING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAM MODELS FAVOR A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 130-150W LONGITUDE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-UKMET SOLUTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDRANCES TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEAR TO BE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND MUCH COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AFTER 72 HOURS. IF MORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE INNER- CORE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME STRONGER BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER IN 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...A PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AS LONG AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.4N 102.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC