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Hurricane BUD (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BUD SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006               
2230 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2230Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65   
KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                           
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 148N 1145W 34 91   5(96)   X(96)   X(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 148N 1145W 50 56  16(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 148N 1145W 64 31  17(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
 24 155N 1164W 34  4  76(80)   9(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 24 155N 1164W 50  X  47(47)  14(61)   1(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 155N 1164W 64  X  23(23)  11(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
 36 163N 1182W 34  1  20(21)  48(69)  13(82)   2(84)   1(85)   X(85)
 36 163N 1182W 50  X   4( 4)  35(39)  11(50)   2(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 36 163N 1182W 64  X   1( 1)  17(18)   9(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
 48 168N 1204W 34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  36(59)  15(74)   X(74)   1(75)
 48 168N 1204W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)  10(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 48 168N 1204W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 
 72 170N 1240W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  33(41)   8(49)   X(49)
 72 170N 1240W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   4(20)   X(20)
 72 170N 1240W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
 
 
 96 170N 1275W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   2(25)
 96 170N 1275W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 96 170N 1275W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
120 170N 1305W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
120 170N 1305W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 170N 1305W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     80     90      95      95      80      65      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC