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Tropical Storm BUD (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A
STABLE AIRMASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77
KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES.  DATA T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE
55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.
 
AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE
AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A
HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC