ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006 BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A STABLE AIRMASS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77 KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES. DATA T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT. AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC