ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006 BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER... SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS 290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W 85 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC