ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 BUD HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN EYE FEATURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 90 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THIS PEAK INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A 14Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SMALLER WIND RADII AND THE IN ITAL AND FORECAST VALUES REFLECT THIS NEW WIND FIELD DATA. THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED...13 KT...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE HEADING CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST. STEERING CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SUBSEQUENTLY A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE HURRICANE AND LOSES THE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.3N 117.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 17.2N 119.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 124.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC