ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 SINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE VARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH THE HURRICANE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE STEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC