ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006 THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SLIGHTLY ELLIPTICAL EYE HAS DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SSMI IMAGERY AT 0353Z REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS SLIGHTLY OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST... AND A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL HAS VERY RECENTLY OBSCURED THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SUBTLE RESTRICTION TO THE EAST DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. OTHER THAN THAT...WITH THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ABOUT 650 N MI EAST OF THE EYE OF BUD...THE CYCLONES APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED SUCH THAT SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 77-90 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...BUT THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MIGHT BE SIGNS THAT BUD HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BUD CONTINUES MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT ABOUT 290/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 30N 130W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THAT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. BUD SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH BY THAT WEAKNESS BEFORE IT DISAPPEARS...SO A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THE MODELS THAT HAVE A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE... SUCH AS THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ANTICIPATE BUD TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING LONGER THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ALONG THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BUD WILL BE REACHING THE SHARP SST GRADIENT IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE DECLINE UNTIL THEN THAT TIME...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS LOWER AT 90 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO SHOWS A MORE RAPID DECLINE BEYOND THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 15.0N 115.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 15.7N 117.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 90 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 121.7W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 18.5N 124.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 128.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 132.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC