ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE SHEAR/BURSTING PATTERN DESCRIBING BUDS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MORNING HAS NOW TURNED INTO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDING-TYPE PATTERN. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED...THOUGH BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A PRIMITIVE BUT SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING AS WELL AS AN EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY RESTRICTED. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RATHER ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEAR THIS OUT...BOTH COMING IN AT T3.0...OR 45 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER. OVERNIGHT AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION ARE NO LONGER AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. SMOOTHING OUT PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES YIELDS A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 9 KTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYERED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD WILL CONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 150W WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT AND WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES THAT BUD REMAINS FREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. FOR NOW...THIS WILL REMAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BLEND OF BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. WHATEVER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WAS PRESENT OVER BUD UNTIL THIS MORNING HAS APPARENTLY WEAKENED...AS EVIDENCED BY ITS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW. A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RELATED TO THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT TOO SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 60 HRS...SHOULD LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHOULD BE WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BUD TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT SYSTEMS SUCH AS BUD ARE NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR VOLATILE SWINGS IN INTENSITY. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY FORECAST PRESENTED HERE MAY HAVE LARGER-THAN-NORMAL ERRORS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.4N 113.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W 70 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W 75 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W 45 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC