ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST. THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48 HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC