ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM UNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE CENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT WITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST THAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR LESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT AFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND LATER TONIGHT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.5N 99.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 99.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC